The year is 2023. Justin Jefferson is entering his fourth season in the NFL and is the consensus WR1 going into fantasy drafts. The case for Jefferson? Since entering the league in 2020, Jefferson ranks third in catches (324), first in receiving yards (4,825), ninth in receiving touchdowns (25), and second in total PPR (973.3) among all wide receivers. Jefferson even grades out as the second-best receiver, just behind Davante Adams, according to PFF—the only two receivers with consecutive 90+ grade performances going into 2023.
In addition, the Vikings ranked fifth in pass rate and third in pass attempts last year. The acquisitions of T.J. Hockenson (mid-season trade) and first-round pick wide receiver Jordan Addison have projected this offense to somewhat, if not totally, replicate last year’s proficiency.
Even as I sit in awe of Jefferson’s numbers, I can’t get myself to fall into the hype of him as the consensus WR1 going into 2023 for a few reasons. For starters, in the previous five seasons, only two of the consensus WR1s finished in the top five at their position (Antonio Brown WR5 in 2018 and Davante Adams WR2 in 2021) at the end of the year. There’s literally a better chance one of Jefferson’s projected first-round contemporaries—Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and/or Tyreek Hill—finishes this season as the WR1.
Now, that doesn’t mean Jefferson can’t and won’t have another fantastic season. In fact, he easily could finish in the top five, and we’d live with that production. I believe, going into this year, the most secure wide receiver in fantasy is Tyreek Hill.
Tyreek Hill played 17 games for the second straight season, and though former first-round selection Jaylen Waddle commanded a desirable 20.8% target share, Hill’s was considerably higher at 30.2%. Jefferson’s 28.6% with Minnesota could see a small dip with the addition of Jordan Addison. The Dolphins did not add any significant pass-catching talent in the offseason, which provides Hill with a similar target upside. Hill graded out as PFF’s number one receiver overall at the end of 2022 in an offense that ranked eighth in pass rate last season (60%).
Hill is truly a freak at the position and is nothing like the Jakeem Grants, John Rosses, Tavon Austins, and even Brandon Cooks who entered the league before him. Tyreek’s durability is one of his most underrated assets, having only missed 5 out of 108 games played. Coupling his propensity to stay on the field with instant acceleration and speed that can turn an offensive fumble into a house call for six (yeah, we’re looking at you Chargers) leads me to believe Hill could be the most valuable player in fantasy overall when the season is finished. When he wasn’t streaking past defenders or simply running by them, Hill was catching 52% of his contested catches at just 5’10”.
Both Kevin O’Connell (HC Minnesota Vikings) and Mike McDaniel (HC Miami Dolphins) had superb regular seasons as first-time head coaches, respectively, so maybe you can call this one a wash.
Another reason I feel strongly about Hill as the true WR1 this year is the combination of Tua Tagovailoa and second-year head coach Mike McDaniel. Just as one could make the argument that Jefferson’s talent transcends Kirk Cousins’ deficiencies at quarterback, you could just as easily point to Hill as the reason for Tua’s 2022 ascension before he was sidelined with concussion issues after 13 games.
Tua is not some quarterback in his mid-30s with a decade of tape in this league. For all we know, Tua was on pace for an ascension with the Joe Burrows and Justin Herberts of his class, the same way Jalen Hurts ascended to league MVP status with the addition of A.J. Brown—which we correctly predicted last year. Through thirteen games, Tua had thrown 25 touchdowns to 8 interceptions on a 64.8% completion percentage. Cousins was 29/14 with a 65.9% completion percentage through a full slate. In addition, Cousins provides no rushing upside. Tua already has more career rushing yards than Cousins (307 to 290), and the latter was sacked 46 times in the 2022 regular season, only behind Justin Fields and Russell Wilson.
Not to mention, Cousins’ completion percentage has been on a steady decline since his first season in Minnesota, and he’s turning 35 this year with a hard ceiling and a wobbly floor. Tua not only extends plays, but the head coach has schemed a quarterback-friendly system that isn’t totally reliant on its quarterback standing firm in the pocket and firing rockets under duress. Tua led the league in passer rating outside of the pocket at 105.5. Couple that with a propensity to not turn the ball over in an offense where extending broken plays can turn into six, and you can understand why we are hyping this duo up.
Head coach Mike McDaniel is a branch off the Shanahan tree when it comes to scheming his most talented players into positions of success. With the addition of backup quarterback Mike White on a two-year deal, there’s at least a stronger, more confident arm riding the pine in case Tua misses time. Hill tallied lines of 7-47 (vs. Jets), 12-177 (vs. Vikings), 4-55 (vs. Patriots), and 2-23 (vs. Jets) without Tua Tagovailoa, and we can never rule out the possibility of Hill taking a handoff or a pitch in the backfield.
Lastly, with Jefferson’s meteoric rise, he’s going to get the best of any and every defense he’ll face this season. Notable defenders he’s projected to face include Darius Slay, Jaire Alexander (twice), Patrick Surtain II, Marshon Lattimore, and Charvarius Ward. Hill is universally recognized as virtually uncoverable in one-on-one situations and even torches the occasional double team. Notable defenders Hill will face include Patrick Surtain II, Darius Slay, and Sauce Gardner (twice). Both receivers reside in divisions with at least one top cornerback on an opposing team.
Jefferson will see more of the tougher individual matchups as opposed to Hill, who will face more team-oriented defensive schemes such as Buffalo, Baltimore, and New England.
Jefferson may have youth and recent history in his corner, but Hill’s stability overshadows the former’s upside. Barring Hill’s rookie season in 2016, he’s finished outside of the top 10 wide receivers just once, and he’s finished as the WR2 twice in the previous three seasons. With his scheduled retirement following the 2025 season, I fully expect Tyreek Hill to leave everything he’s got on the field for the next few seasons in pursuit of a championship.